2022 was one of the worst years for bond returns. Conservative investors with larger bond allocations in their portfolio would have suffered large paper losses in the face of the fastest interest rate hiking cycle in history. But these losses could mean additional future returns.

Losses typically make investors nervous about the future, with many assuming that 2023 will merely be a continuation of the trend markets experienced the previous year; but what does the data say about negative annual returns on equities over the long history of stock markets?

When the US Federal Reserve committed to raise interest rates in the face of rising inflation, investors and financial media like Bloomberg, Morningstar, and Yahoo Finance were quick to predict that bonds will underperform cash. Looking at over 30 years of International Government Bond data, we examine the validity of these forecasts.

There are signs that the more than 30-year bond bull market is finally turning.