GYC Insights
Articles on real-life financial issues written to educate and enlighten.
Wall Street Forecasts: Popular, But Not Very Helpful
Research shows that the accuracy of forecasts by these professionals were no different from the random chance of a coin-flip, with an accuracy rating of 48%.
Election Season
With Trump currently ahead in the polls around 10 days to the election, investors may be worried about increased tensions with the US and other countries and the resultant impact to the market.
Interest Rates Down, Bonds Also Down
Many investors believe that when interest rates fall, bond prices should rise. However when the Federal Open Market Committee cut the discount rate by 0.50%, the 10-Year Treasury fell in price.
Anything But Average
While the annual average return of the global market in the past 20 years is +5.69%, the actual annual return ranges from -42.77% all the way to +49.14%.
Gotta Risk it For The Biscuit
An average annual return of almost 20% with close to 20 years of consecutive positive returns, it sounded too good to be true. It was.
The ‘Ex’ Has Issues
A record 38 emerging market ex-China funds have popped up in 2023 and 2024, with a rise of 2300% flowing into these funds in the in past 3 years. Have you jumped on the bandwagon?
Rates Got You Down?
The US Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 0.5% during their September 2024 meeting. So far, stock markets have responded positively, but interestingly, bonds have not started to rally as expected by many.
Successful Technology, Poor Investment
Commercial airlines, automobiles, the radio, and the internet may have changed the way we live but it has failed to deliver returns to investors.
Easy Come, Easy Go
Peloton is down -95%, Zoom -88%, Moderna -84%, and Etsy -83% since their peaks during the Covid-19 pandemic. Such a severe wipe out over a couple of years is pretty terrifying to imagine, especially when it comes to your portfolio.
Positively Uncertain
The long term average return from investing in the global market is around +7.36%/year. But in reality, what we get each year can be very far from that number (e.g. almost -20% in 2022, or almost +30% in 2019).
Current-cy Pains
The lack of SGD investment options as well as the need for a global opportunity set naturally comes with exposure to foreign currencies. Is your wealth poised to take on forex movements?
Ain’t No Pleasing You
+154% in earnings, but -8% in share price. Nvidia's announcement has puzzling effect on investor behaviour.
Beware of Statistics
On average about 100 of the funds available at the beginning of any given year disappear (they are liquidated or merged).
A Clockwork Cut
By the time the Fed announces and executes rate changes, you'd be too late.
Are You Ahead of The Crowd?
In the Challenger tragedy of 1986, what took a 5-month investigation to determine, the stock market figured out in a matter of minutes.
Sahm-things Are Never Certain
Indicator with perfect record of identifying recessions might be wrong for the first time in more than half a century.
Markets in Turmoil
Some investors might cut their investment exposure due to recent fearful headlines to, but that would be a big mistake.